Another way to view things

UBS announced a study recently that states 89% of iPhone owners plan to stay loyal to Apple with their next smartphone purchase.  I’m going to stay away from the fact that the survey was only of 515 people, or that it was self reporting of a preference for an action that might happen someday maybe.  I’m going to say that it’s completely true, but flip it around.

This means that 11% of people won’t stay with the iPhone.  Comscore reports Here and Here and (with real techniques) showing the iPhones growth is at only at 3.2% over the last year.  With only 89% of iPhone users considering staying iPhone users when their 2 year contract expire iPhone loses 5.5% a year conservatively.  5.5% loss > 3.2% growth. This study is actually a negative prediction in overall market share.

See you can make stats say anything you want.


Update: Real numbers

4 thoughts on “Another way to view things

  1. Jason

    Except your math is faulty. Any math teacher will tell you that you can’t add/subtract/compare percentages. Since the smartphone market is growing, and Apple’s share of that growth is also growing (albeit at *only* 3.2% per year), the growth will more than compensate for any legacy users who bolt for a competing platform. Also, Chad Olson, whose link I followed to your page, makes a good point, in that Android, Blackberry, etc., will lose more legacy users to iPhone than iPhone will lose to them. Math is your friend.

    1. SkyJedi Post author

      You fail understand “you can makes stats say anything” sir. My point is the survey is shit and all the numbers are shit. My point is people need to understand stats before they start reporting them and they look foolish repeating shit numbers like sheep.

      Chad makes a completely different point and supported it with this shit survey ultimately hurting his arguement to all except the juice drinkers.

  2. iamme73

    It’s not true that stats can say anything. This is a huge fallacy. People lie about statistics or people take statistical information and draw incorrect conclusions, but the statistics themselves if gathered in the correct manner, don’t lie.

    When I read your analysis, I thought this person is comparing those 2 statistics incorrectly and reaching an erroneous conclusion.

    The smartphone market is growing, that 3.2% in growth is representative of all of the people who are purchasing smart phones. While the 5.5% of existing users leaving, represents a different number of people. So you can’t just subtract one from another because those statistics represent different populations.

    So both statistics could be telling the truth, you are just misusing them, to support your overall incorrect conclusion about statistics.

    This is not a personal attack, but your thinking on this issue is very very flawed.

    1. SkyJedi Post author

      My numbers are not just flawed they are rediculous. The point was to create a post so rediculous to poke fun at the survey that was completely rediculous. BUT fans boys like you still took it serious, attack my awful awful math, and turn a blind eye to the awful survey because it supports what they think. All i can do now is laugh at you for spending all that time and effort it took you to argue a moot point it all while not getting the joke. Also, way to miss the previous comment were I explained just that. HaHa HaHa Hardy Ha Ha

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